In his article, “Rethinking the Coming of the Civil War: A Counterfactual Exercise” Gary J. Kornblith advances his argument that without the Mexican-American War in 1846, there would have been no Civil War. This argument “counterfactually” traces the state of Texas and the nation back to her very beginning of the Mexican-American war and proposes a different alternative, that instead of electing Polk instead the nation chose Henry Clay. Kornblith then follows out this new counterfactual history to show how President Clay’s opinions and previous actions would have been enacted as the issues that troubled the nation before the Civil War are brought before him. Ultimately, the author proves that changing a small aspect of history may have had very different effects in the long run.
Still, I was unconvinced by Kornblith’s argument, not only because it is not based in fact, but also because there were several key factors that Kornblith forgot to account for. First, Kornblith blatantly ignores the possibility that his big change, Henry Clay, might change his mind about the issues and act in a manner out of character for him in order to garner support. This ignorance of Kornblith should not be overlooked, for he is attempting to rebuild decades of valuable research around an “experiment” he ran in his head. My second problem with the Kornblith piece was its complete neglect of the issue of slavery, as a major factor considered by the both the fundamentalists and revisionists. I was terribly bothered by his glossing over of the topic in this article. While the author tries to account for this by saying that as President, Clay would have avoided expansionist policies and focused less on the issues that divided the country, but instead on those issues that drew it together.
Both of these explanations for the possible lack of the war were dissatisfying to me as they were not only counterfactual, but they presented an argument that was simplistic in a time when issues very complicated as shown by our in class lecture and the very letters soldiers wrote home in (to borrow from Manning). When all other theories revolve around a very complicated and detailed understanding of the civil war and its causes, perhaps more credence should be paid to its supporters.